Olympics 2012 - Jamaica's Sprint Prospects Part 2

In my last blogpost I shared my thoughts on our prospects in London and would like to return to the subject now that we have the results from the National Championships.

 

My observation that Usain Bolt "will have no room for antics before the finish line", was demonstrated in the 100 metres final in which Yohan Blake stole the lead from Asafa Powell and refused to be caught by Bolt. Of Bolt, who returned a 9.86 seconds finish, behind Blake's personal best and stadium record of 9.75 seconds, Glen Mills said "(Bolt) is not 100 per cent but he is good enough to compete". I trust Glen Mills, he knows his athletes and I believe him when he says that "we have four weeks and we'll take it in stride. Everything will fall into place and we know what to do." Since those assurances from Mills were published in the Sunday Gleaner, Yohan Blake again claimed victory, this time in Bolt's pet event, the 200 metres. The next time we see them will be in London, and for me, Bolt is still the man to beat in the 200 metres, but I wouldn't bet good money on him winning then 100 metres.  With only a month or so to go, I am guessing that Mills will have to focus Usain on one good race; the 200 metres.

In the meanwhile the stakes have been inched up a few notches and, perhaps for the first time since Beijing 2008, we can imagine another Jamaican man, besides Bolt, winning Olympic gold; how blessed are we. Will Asafa be healthy enough to aggressively compete? Only time will tell, but Gatlin isn't losing sleep over it and Gay is too focused on his own ground game to care.  Both Nesta Carter and Lerone Clarke are predictably outside of the threesome for the individual events, but what a step up by Michael Frater. Keep this little nugget in mind though; all eight finalists in the 100 metres sprint ran times faster than the Olympic qualifying A standard with +1.1 m/sec wind. Now compare that to the Americans with six and +1.8 m/sec wind speed.

In the women's 100 metres, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce did not surprise me with her win but did delight us with a big 10.70 seconds. Veronica Campbell-Brown performed as expected in this short sprint and Kerron Stewart undid my prediction; a very welcome and pleasant outcome as she dragged Sherone Simpson with her into a possible relay spot. How fortuitous that our 4x100 metres women's relay team will be given as second chance to make a first impression. I still believe that our medal prospects in this short sprint will be no more than two from Pocket Rocket Fraser-Pryce and VCB, with Jeter as the persistent interloper. Admittedly, after seeing Shelly-Ann's 100 metres run I could see her taking the 200 metres, and she did in fine style. VCB has a big heart and is more determined than the rest to cop the gold, but realism tells me that both Shelly-Ann and Allyson Felix will challenge that dream in a big way. I am not discounting Sherone Simpson's amazing run on Sunday; it was a sight for sore eyes, but I am not prepared to assign coloured medals at this point.

There were other notable performances that got lost in the wake of the short sprint outcomes. Our 800 metres, men and women, failed to meet the qualifying B standards, I had hoped for a better time from Kenia Sinclair. Melaine Walker and Kaleise Spencer predictably booked their places, Nickiesha Wilson met the A standard for the third spot and Ristananna will continue to grow. Novlene Williams-Mills delivered, Rosemarie Whyte came through, but Shericka Williams was edged out by Christine Day. All four women ran faster times than the A standard which holds grand promise for the women's 4x400 metres relay.

Dwight Thomas failed to make the top three under the weight of a bold and smart run from Hansle Parchment and Brigitte Foster-Hylton won with a healthy +1.3 seconds/metre breeze. Note that five of eight female hurdlers met the A standard and the others met the B standard. A fact, which bodes very well for our women’s 100 metres hurdles pipeline.  A quick glance at the times from Oslo just a few weeks ago shows five of eight female hurdlers returning times faster than Brigitte's at a +0.7 wind speed so she will need to at least repeat her 12.51 seconds season’s best to be in medal contention.

I maintain that the men's 400 metres needs work, for while Dane Hyatt returned a healthy 44.83 seconds, Jermaine Gonzales could only manage third place. The good news is perhaps that we are seeing the makings of a good, not great, but good 4x400 metres relay team as the top four finishers cleared the A standard of 45.30 seconds. The men's 400 metres hurdles saw Leford Green take the top spot and make the A standard with a 48.88 seconds run. The next three hurdlers, which included the irascible Danny McFarlane who ran fourth, mustered the B standard. I would have been pleasantly surprised if Isa Phillips were among the top three, but let's not kid ourselves though any hope of a medal hinges on a time closer to very low or sub-48.00 seconds.

As for the Championships, I enjoyed the three days I went and, like many other Jamaican's this is as close as I'll get to London. I am impatient for the start of the games but tempered in my expectations. I am proud of all our athletes and inspired by their commitment to their craft. Now, go forth and represent.