Olympics 2012 - Jamaica's Sprint Prospects

My future Olympian

Anyone who is paying attention will conclude that Jamaica's medal prospects this year are not nearly as good as they were in the 2008 Beijing Olympics.  In fact, I can safely say we are hanging our hopes on a few good men and a handful of super-women. My opinions have been formed based on events to date, and I am open to changes after the national trials. I don’t like surprises and dark-horses but they go with the territory. I am a life-long fan of track and field and hope to see my son; who has just completed the Prep School season, in the talent pool of Jamaican athletes in the future.

So then, unless he falters with a false start, the world expects Usain Bolt to win the sprint double; a record or two would be icing on the cake. The field for the men's 100 metres remains crowded, though and Asafa Powell is as anxious for that gold as Yohan Blake is greedy. The race in Olso on June 7th, was the clearest evidence I've seen that Bolt will have no room for antics before the finish line. Without a doubt, that was the best race I have seen 'Safa run, even compared to those he has won. He competed from start to finish; Bolt will therefore have to compete with Asafa and the rest of the field this time around and not just with the clock.



Bolt & Powell at the UTECH Classics 2012



Tyson Gay sees no other competitor but Bolt, and Justin Gatlin is desperate to erase his sordid past. Oh, and let's not forget Nesta Carter and Lerone Clarke who, if either makes it past the National Trials would like to prove their big-stage-individual-events sprint bona fides. Beyond the Jamaicans and the Americans, the Frenchman Christophe Lamaitre, my favourite spoiler, will not be ignored. The fierceness of the competition notwithstanding, I can now see at least two Jamaicans on the podium for the men’s 100 metres, and I am willing Asafa to get nothing less than a silver medal at the 2012 London Olympics.

Yohan Blake at the Gibson Relays 2012



For the men's 200 metres sprint, I am slightly less bullish but see gold and (a possible) silver for Bolt and Blake respectively. I’ll stick my neck out to say that Walter Dix cannot beat Yohan Blake on the stretch to the finish but Blake will have to overcome the affable and experienced Wallace Spearmon. Gatlin will want to assert himself but will have to tussle with Dix for fourth or fifth. I can only hope our Nickel Ashmeade improves on his New York 19.94 seconds to keep the Dutchman Churandy Martina at bay as the bronze medal is anyone’s hunk of metal. Marvin Anderson has a tough road among this lot for although his SB of 20.21 seconds in New York on June 9^th was encouraging I do not expect the top three to run over 20.00 seconds on the day.

 

VCB



Shelly-Ann

We may not be so fortunate with the Jamaican women in the sprint double as we are likely to be with the men. Veronica Campbell-Brown and Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce hold our best prospects for a medal of any colour in the sprint double. Jamaica's 100 metres medal sweep in the 2008 Beijing Olympics will not be repeated; neither Kerron Stewart nor Sherone Simpson has shown form worthy of the medal podium to this point. We have seen neither hide nor hair of Jura Levy and although Schillonie Calvert is in a form which may well earn her a spot on the national team, the 11.25 secs for the 100 metres produced in Oslo is unlikely to take her very far into the rounds. There’s Murielle Ahoure of the Ivory Coast showing very competitive form and Carmelita Jeter has never been more hungry or determined. I predict VCB, Fraser-Pryce and Schillonie Calvert to be the ones to get through the national trials. I'm rooting for Sheri-Ann Brooks but alas, the bus may be full for the individual events and 11.44 seconds for the 100 metres will need sharpening. Let’s not kid ourselves though, Allyson Felix is on fire and is unrelenting for gold in the 200 metres, whilst showing surprisingly good form in the 100 metres.

Gonzales

Our prospects in the men's 400 metres are no better than they were four years ago and although I hold a special place in my heart for Jermaine Gonzales, Lashawn Merritt remains formidable along with his fiercely competitive countryman Jeremy Wariner. Just as we're getting used to the young Grenadian Kirani James, here comes another teenager, Luguelín Santos of the Dominican Republic with a season's best of 44.45 seconds. Gonzales will need to drop his 45.53 seconds season’s best in New York on June 9^th by a second or more and draw a useful lane in the finals in London to earn a spot on the podium.



Novlene



Our pool of 400 metres women remains shallow, with Novlene Williams-Mills as the standard bearer. Patricia Hall seems to be improving well and Rosemarie Whyte is, well running but the “Jamerican” Sanya Richards-Ross and Amantle Montsho of Botswana are Novlene's strongest competitors. If Williams-Mills holds her form and runs a smart race, she has a good shot at a medal but she doesn't have the luxury of underestimating any competitor; especially not Francena McCorory of the US who could well elbow her way into the top three. This may be Christie Ohuruogu’s last hurrah for Great Britain and she must not be discounted; she has nothing to lose and will find a herculean effort.



Kaliese

Melaine

The women’s 400 metres hurdles will be a scorcher and I fully expect two medals from Melaine Walker; my personal favourite, and Kaliese Spencer. Admittedly, Walker’s less than impressive 56.26 seconds was as disappointing as Spencer’s 54.39 seconds, was gratifying; both in Rome. Lashinda Demus of the US is all grit at this point but will have to drop that 54.80 seconds SB ran in Rome to cop the top spot. T’Erea Brown also from the US produced a 54.85 seconds meet record in New York ahead of Spencer, but will need to drop below 54.60 seconds to contend on a good day in London. I can see Ristananna Tracey adding value and I expect her to make the finals. If she remains healthy and fit, with time and experience, she will be called upon to carry the torch in 2016. Nickiesha Wilson has work to do to improve her 56.29 seconds SB as I fully expect the medalists to deliver times closer to 54.00 seconds on the day.

I have no grand expectations for the men’s 400 metres hurdles, this pipeline needs urgent replenishment. Isa Phillips has produced a personal best so far of 50.59 seconds but I anticipate that the London final will see at least the top five finishers at sub-50.00 seconds. The lanky Puerto Rican, Javier Culson will not allow either, Bershawn Jackson or Angelo Taylor of the US, to steal his thunder. The crop thins out at the 800 metres mark so it's all hope and pray from here.  Not sure what the circumstances are with Kenia Sinclair but I miss her tenacity. 

A medal in the men’s 110 metres hurdles is highly unlikely, although when you jump over obstacles the risk of error increases exponentially. Dwight Thomas has to compete with Liu Xiang of China and the American duo David Oliver and Jason Richardson. The young Cuban Orlando Ortega seems set to be a spoiler while his countryman, Dayron Robles, recovers from a leg inflammation which kept him out of the NY leg of the Diamond League on June 9, 2012. Thomas’ SB of 13.36 seconds if it was repeated, would have put him in 4^th at that ill-fated New York race; a race that did not include either Robles or Xiang. He will need to find the 13.15 seconds he ran in Oslo last June to contend. Xiang sounded the warning and produced 12.97 seconds before his home crowd in Shanghai.

I for one am extremely pleased with Brigitte Foster-Hylton's performance/recovery post-surgery, which has so far exceeded my expectations. I'm a pragmatist though and the petite Australian Sally Pearson is still the thorn in every female 100 metres hurdler's flesh.  Brigitte will need to deliver a coup de grâce on the day; Kellie Wells, Danielle Carruthers, Priscilla Lopes-Schliep, Dawn Harper and Lolo Jones remain just as convinced of their title to a medal.

Let’s be clear, baton dropping, running out of boxes/lanes and even false starts are the great equalizers so we can ignore those risks as qualifiers for any given team. That said, we can expect magic in the relays, as we will go through the full range of human emotions; that’s what relays evoke. Without Powell, our men produced a record breaking 37.04 seconds, 4x100 metres run in Daegu last year. With or without him a sub- 37.00 seconds run is entirely possible. Our women are capable of delivering medal but the USA’s talent pool is deep and wide so a gold is ambitiously doable. Our women’s 4x400 metres medal hopes are vastly more realistic than that our men’s; indeed I expect at least a silver for our women.

The Olympic Games are sure to deliver manic responses and for all Jamaicans, everywhere, the London games; like all others before will be a deep and richly pride filled time. I fully expect to see my flag flying on a few occasions and will stand at attention to the National Anthem, wherever the moments find me.

 

Let’s see what highs and lows the trials throw up, more anon.